Need to Know: Trading volatility can be a ‘very potent hedge,‘ says today‘s call

Like Conor McGregor attacking a UFC bus, the tariff-lover-in-chief has ambushed a stock market that was driving toward a weekly win.

“Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, President Trump orders USTR to consider $100 billion in additional tariffs,” groans Oanda’s Stephen Innes. And so now to go at more Chinese imports, as today’s also gets attention.

A has offered a “measured response,” and other reactions from Beijing could be muted given it’s a holiday period over there, notes BK Asset Management’s Boris Schlossberg.

But while many investors assume Trump is just talking tough before negotiating, more twists seem likely, and the selling could turn “more intense,” Schlossberg warns.

Where can traders find shelter?

“The new safe haven is now volatility,” says Sunrise Capital’s Christopher Stanton for our call of the day. He’s among the money managers buying futures contracts tied to the VIX, a move that will look smart if the market keeps getting choppier.

“It’s the one thing that’s pretty much guaranteed,” Stanton tells The Wall Street Journal.

To be sure, saying “safe haven” is redundant, and going long the CBOE Volatility Index can be tricky. That’s because you’ll “bleed away money” over time, as notes. But Sunrise’s chief investment officer sounds over the moon about this trade.

“A small amount of this stuff can be a very potent hedge,” he beams.

One vehicle for such bets — the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN  , which has nearly $1 billion in investor money — is showing a year-to-date gain of 68%.

Even so, such exchange-traded products “deliver poor long-term exposure to the VIX,” and they “have a history of erasing vast sums of investor capital over holdings periods as short as a few months.”


And see:

Key market gauges

Futures for the Dow  , S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 are slumping, but are coming off as the latest trade-war scare arrived. The Dow  , S&P  and Nasdaq Composite were on track for weekly gains of between 1.7% to 0.2%, as of yesterday’s close.

Hong Kong’s equity benchmark closed higher, helped by , while mainland China’s markets continued their holiday break. (Happy belated to you and yours!)

,   and bitcoin are lower. is gaining, and is little changed.

See for the latest action.

The chart Stocks typically do well in April’s second half.

History suggests April could turn out OK for stock-market bulls. That’s the message from the chart above from Stock Trader’s Almanac editor Jeff Hirsch.

Earnings season is underway around mid-April, and Corporate America’s “results and guidance typically propel stocks higher into month’s end,” Hirsch writes in .

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Speaking of turbulence, indexing legend Jack Bogle says he’s “ to this extent in my career.” Has he forgotten 2008?

The figures for nonfarm payrolls arrived before the open, and the headline number of 103,000 for 170,000 jobs added.

A speech by Fed boss Jerome Powell this afternoon will have the market’s attention as well.

Check out:

Trump on taxes at an event in West Virginia, inspiring tweets like this:

More Facebook headlines: The company some of Mark Zuckerberg’s private messages, COO the company was “too idealistic,” and WSJ columnist Peggy Noonan is as follows: “The signal fact of Mr. Zuckerberg is that he is supremely gifted in one area — monetizing technical expertise by marrying it to a canny sense of human weakness. Beyond that, what a shallow and banal figure.”

Bad news for the slow-food movement? Campbell Soup’s .

Goodyear is over potentially faulty tires linked to deaths.

SMH news: Micron  has been from UBS, and a short seller has targeted Nvidia  .

DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach has a question for you:

The stat A forensic tent covers the spot in London where a man, aged 20, collapsed this week after being fatally stabbed.

With 22 murders in March, London just had its most killings in one month in more than a decade. About 40% of youth homicides are gang-related, .

“It used to be men in their 20s — now children in school uniforms arrive with stab wounds,” .

The number of people murdered in the U.K. capital in this year’s first three months was 50, .

The quote

“I guess the eagle knew I was Canadian. I don’t know. But it came for me.” — Seattle Mariners pitcher James Paxton wound up as during some pre-game pomp in Minneapolis.

Random reads

Southern California has been in several years.

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But may deserve to be bitten.

Tebow is at it again, hitting a 3-run homer on his .

Former South Korean president Park Geun-hye is .

Hungarian hard-liner Viktor Orban looks on track for .

“The rest of the U.S. might never match …”

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