Need to Know: ‘I don’t think this is a trade war,’ says Wall Street veteran

The Dow is trying to decide if it’s done diving, after yesterday’s 724-point plunge.

As stocks mostly stabilize in early action, Bankrate’s Greg McBride is feeling the pain and , “Mama said there’ll be days like this.”

Investors had better keep their seat belts fastened, given that “the odds of a trade war have grown,” the chief financial analyst adds.

Meanwhile, veteran strategist Marc Chandler seems to have “Bridge Over Troubled Water” on his playlist, and he provides our call of the day.

“People are presenting this as it’s a trade war. I don’t think this is a trade war,” Brown Brothers Harriman’s old hand says , as he reflects on the and the reactions in Beijing and elsewhere.

Chandler doubles down on his take in a blog post.

“We have been to this dance before,” he writes at his .

“Countries will respond with some symbolic retaliation on a small number of goods that make a little more than a rounding error in bilateral trade, take some measures to ensure that the defection of the U.S. does not lead to an import surge, and appeal to the conflict resolution mechanism at the WTO.”

U.S. wine, fruit, nuts and seamless steel pipes looks like they’re among the areas targeted, with not appearing as substantial as feared.


And see:

This haven currency is rallying to levels last seen in November 2016.

Chandler stresses that one safety play isn’t making a convincing move. The Japanese yen has climbed to its highest level against the dollar since the U.S. presidential election, but he wants to “see some follow through.”

He says the dollar has tumbled below 105 yen, but advises watching to see if the buck ends the week below that mark, which is important “both psychologically and technically.”

Key market gauges

The main U.S. stock gauges were recently mixed after . The Dow  , S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite’s big tumbles have put each gauge on track for a weekly drop of about 4%.

is losing ground, after Japan’s Nikkei and Shanghai’s benchmark shed 3.4%. Oil   and gold are gaining, while bitcoin trades around $8,400.

See for the latest action.

The quote

“All the products on the list are small potatoes, and the real important ones are U.S. farm products like soybeans and sorghum. China is keeping its powder dry.” —An unnamed government adviser in Beijing notes Chinese officials are .

Check out:

And read:

The chart

While Chandler sounds soothing, the High Chart Patterns Group is getting alarmed.

If the S&P 500 falls to its 200-day moving average, newsletter publisher HCPG plans to be betting against stocks in a big way.

You only want to buy the dip when you see a longer interval between drops to that closely watched chart level, in the above tweet that provides our chart of the day.

And here’s a bonus chart:

The buzz

“It’s not the end of the world, but conditions are pretty ripe for bounces to be weak and a nasty stock market,” . “Now is a good time to be working on the micro,” because “focusing on the macro … will zap your energy at the worst possible time.”

In other political news, President Trump today , has become national security adviser, and former Playboy model Karen McDougal says .

Does this seem like a great day for a trading debut? DropBox shares were after the company priced its IPO above an expected range.

Target and Kroger are .

At least two people have been in a hostage-taking situation and possible terrorist attack at a supermarket in France.

Nike is rising after its , while Micron is falling following the .


On the data front, , and new-home sales are also on tap today.

Check out:

Three Federal Reserve officials are due to speak, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and the Dallas Fed’s Rob Kaplan talking in the morning, while the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren grabs the spotlight after the closing bell.

Random reads

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